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Поздний цикл: облигации выигрывают от снижения доходностей, акции селективны — качество и AI-бенефициары. Окно риска рецессии — 2027–2029.","fc":[1.9,2,2.1],"as":{"stocks":"acc","bonds":"buy","estate":"hold","fx":"hold","crypto":"acc"},"gdp":[1.9,-0.1,3.5,2.8,4,2.7,3.8,4.4,4.5,4.8,4.1,1,1.7,2.8,3.8,3.5,2.8,2,0.1,-2.6,2.7,1.5,2.3,1.8,2.3,2.7,1.7,2.2,2.9,2.3,-2.8,5.9,1.9,2.5,2.8,2.1]},"chn":{"n":"Китай","f":"🇨🇳","cur":"CNY","idx":"CSI 300","rate":3,"infl":0.06,"un":4.62,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":4.96,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Стабилизация после дефляции","tone":"buy","v":"ПОКУПАТЬ","cscore":16.5,"note":"Стимулы властей остановили дефляционную спираль, но структурный переход от недвижимости к технологиям продолжается. Селектив: гособлигации и экспортные чемпионы лучше широкого индекса.","fc":[4.5,4.3,4.1],"as":{"stocks":"hold","bonds":"acc","estate":"red","fx":"red","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[3.9,9.3,14.2,14,13.1,10.9,10,9.3,7.8,7.7,8.5,8.3,9.1,10,10.1,11.4,12.7,14.2,9.7,9.4,10.6,9.6,7.9,7.8,7.4,7,6.8,6.9,6.7,6,2.2,8.4,3,5.2,5,4.8]},"eur":{"n":"Еврозона","f":"🇪🇺","cur":"EUR","idx":"Euro Stoxx 50","rate":2,"infl":2.47,"un":5.93,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":1.54,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Раннее восстановление","tone":"hold","v":"ДЕРЖАТЬ","cscore":-1.5,"note":"Рост слабый, но стабилизировался. Оценка акций дешевле США, облигации ядра привлекательны. Импульс — фискальные программы Германии и энергопереход.","fc":[1.3,1.5,1.6],"as":{"stocks":"hold","bonds":"acc","estate":"hold","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[2.5,1.8,1.4,-0.5,2.4,2.4,1.8,2.6,2.9,2.9,3.8,2,0.9,0.8,2.2,1.7,3.3,3,0.4,-4.5,2,1.6,-0.9,-0.3,1.4,2,1.9,2.6,1.9,1.6,-6.1,6.3,3.4,0.5,0.8,0.9]},"deu":{"n":"Германия","f":"🇩🇪","cur":"EUR","idx":"DAX","rate":2,"infl":2.17,"un":3.71,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":0.24,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Фискальный импульс разворачивается","tone":"hold","v":"ДЕРЖАТЬ","cscore":-0.3,"note":"Инфраструктурные и оборонные расходы дают импульс 2026–2028. Промышленное дно пройдено. DAX поддерживается дивидендными гигантами и capex-циклом.","fc":[0.9,1.2,1.4],"as":{"stocks":"acc","bonds":"acc","estate":"red","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[5,1.9,-1,2.4,1.5,0.8,1.8,2,1.9,2.9,1.7,0.2,-0.7,0.7,0.7,3.8,3,1,-5.7,4.2,3.9,0.4,0.4,2.2,1.5,2.2,2.7,1,1.1,-3.8,3.2,1.4,-0.3,-0.2,0.1,0.4]},"jpn":{"n":"Япония","f":"🇯🇵","cur":"JPY","idx":"Nikkei 225","rate":0.9,"infl":3.17,"un":2.45,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":1.19,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Нормализация ставок","tone":"hold","v":"ДЕРЖАТЬ","cscore":-0.4,"note":"Банк Японии продолжает нормализацию — иена укрепляется, кэрри-трейд сжимается. Корпоративные реформы и buyback поддерживают акции, но валютный риск растёт.","fc":[0.9,1,1.1],"as":{"stocks":"hold","bonds":"red","estate":"hold","fx":"acc","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[4.9,3.8,0.8,-0.5,0.6,2.7,3.1,1.1,-1.1,-0.3,2.8,0.4,0.1,1.5,2.2,1.8,1.4,1.4,-1.2,-5.7,3.2,-0.1,1.4,2,0.3,1.6,0.8,1.7,0.6,-0.3,-4.2,2.6,1,1.9,0.3,1.1]},"rus":{"n":"Россия","f":"🇷🇺","cur":"RUB","idx":"IMOEX","rate":14,"infl":8.72,"un":2.13,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":1,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Охлаждение после перегрева","tone":"short","v":"ПРОДАВАТЬ","cscore":-12.4,"note":"ЦБ начал цикл снижения с пика 16,5%, но ставки всё ещё жёсткие. Акции отыгрывают будущее смягчение, ОФЗ — в фокусе. Рубль стабилизировался на фоне дорогого экспорта.","fc":[1.2,1.4,1.6],"as":{"stocks":"hold","bonds":"buy","estate":"red","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[-3,-5,-14.5,-8.7,-12.7,-4.1,-3.6,1.4,-5.3,6.4,10,5.1,4.7,7.3,7.2,6.4,8.2,8.5,5.2,-7.8,4.5,4.3,3.7,1.8,0.7,-2,0.2,1.8,2.8,2.2,-2.7,5.6,-1.4,3.6,4.1,1.6]},"ind":{"n":"Индия","f":"🇮🇳","cur":"INR","idx":"Nifty 50","rate":5.5,"infl":2.4,"un":4.22,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":7.57,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Структурный подъём","tone":"buy","v":"ПОКУПАТЬ","cscore":24.7,"note":"Самая быстрорастущая крупная экономика: демография, урбанизация, цифровизация и перенос производств из Китая. Устойчивая фаза подъёма. Главная осторожность — высокие оценки индекса.","fc":[6.8,6.8,6.9],"as":{"stocks":"buy","bonds":"hold","estate":"acc","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[5.5,1.1,5.5,4.8,6.7,7.6,7.5,4,6.2,8.5,3.9,4.9,3.9,7.9,7.9,9.3,9.3,9.8,3.9,8.5,8.5,5.2,5.5,6.4,7.4,8,8.3,6.8,6.5,3.9,-5.8,9.1,7.2,7.8,7,7.1]},"gbr":{"n":"Великобритания","f":"🇬🇧","cur":"GBP","idx":"FTSE 100","rate":3.5,"infl":3.88,"un":4.75,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":1.39,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Поздний цикл · дезинфляция","tone":"hold","v":"ДЕРЖАТЬ","cscore":-1.8,"note":"Банк Англии осторожно снижает ставки. FTSE 100 дёшев и дивиденден, защищён сырьевыми и фармацевтическими гигантами, выигрывает от глобального, а не локального спроса.","fc":[1.4,1.6,1.7],"as":{"stocks":"hold","bonds":"acc","estate":"hold","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[0.7,-2.2,0.3,2.5,3.9,2.5,2.4,3.8,3.3,3.4,4.3,2.5,2,2.8,2.3,2.8,2.7,2.6,-0.2,-4.6,2.2,1,1.5,1.8,2.9,2.2,1.9,2.4,1.4,1.6,-10.4,8.7,4.3,0.1,1.1,1.3]},"fra":{"n":"Франция","f":"🇫🇷","cur":"EUR","idx":"CAC 40","rate":2,"infl":0.94,"un":7.54,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":0.84,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Замедление · фискальные риски","tone":"red","v":"СОКРАЩАТЬ","cscore":-4.5,"note":"Бюджетная консолидация и политическая фрагментация держат спред OAT-Bund расширенным. Люксовые чемпионы глобальны, но страновая премия давит на внутренние сектора.","fc":[1,1.2,1.4],"as":{"stocks":"red","bonds":"hold","estate":"red","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[2.9,1,1.6,-0.6,2.3,2.1,1.4,2.3,3.6,3.4,3.9,1.9,1.1,0.8,2.8,1.6,2.4,2.4,0.2,-2.9,1.9,2.1,0.3,0.6,0.9,1,1,1.9,1.8,1.8,-7.5,6.4,2.5,0.9,1.1,0.8]},"bra":{"n":"Бразилия","f":"🇧🇷","cur":"BRL","idx":"Bovespa","rate":12.5,"infl":5.02,"un":5.97,"rateLive":false,"inflLive":true,"inflY":"2025","unLive":true,"unY":"2025","inflSrc":"World Bank","unSrc":"World Bank","rateSrc":null,"gdpFact":2.29,"gdpFactY":"2025","phase":"Цикл смягчения","tone":"red","v":"СОКРАЩАТЬ","cscore":-5.1,"note":"Банк Бразилии снижает ставки с пика — локальные облигации фиксируют двузначную доходность, акции переоцениваются вверх. Сырьевой экспорт и слабый доллар — попутный ветер.","fc":[2.4,2.6,2.8],"as":{"stocks":"acc","bonds":"buy","estate":"hold","fx":"hold","crypto":"hold"},"gdp":[-4.3,1,-0.5,4.7,5.9,4.4,2.2,3.4,0.3,0.5,4.4,1.4,3.1,1.1,5.8,3.2,4,6.1,5.1,-0.3,7.5,4,1.9,2.9,0.5,-3.5,-3.3,1.3,1.8,1.2,-3.3,5,3,3.2,3.4,2.9]}},"wbMacro":{"live":true,"provider":"World Bank Open Data"}}